MWITA-AW-2026-002 · Evidence B · P1
PRISM-Now's evaluation found conventional core-macro models stronger for current-quarter nowcasts when information was nearly complete, while big-data and nonlinear ML models were stronger one quarter ahead when realized information was absent.
What this does not establish
Does not support a blanket claim that ML is better than econometrics.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Performance may depend on data revisions, shock regimes and chosen loss functions.
What would change the reading
Route models by horizon only after local backtesting by data vintage and loss function.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.