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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-CR-2026-0017 · Evidence A · P0

In METRs randomisierter Studie benötigten 16 erfahrene Open-Source-Entwickler mit frühen 2025er AI-Tools für 246 reale Aufgaben 19 % mehr Zeit, obwohl sie eine Beschleunigung erwarteten.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Kleine Stichprobe, erfahrene Entwickler, bekannte Repositories und ältere Tools; METR nennt spätere Daten nur schwache Verbesserungsevidenz.

What would change the reading

Mehrere präregistrierte Replikationen mit neueren Tools zeigen konsistente Netto-Beschleunigung nach Review- und Fehlerkosten.

Primary routes

  1. METR Early 2025 AI Experienced OS Developers Studyhttps://metr.org/Early_2025_AI_Experienced_OS_Devs_Study-paper.pdfOpen source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.