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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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The ten-minute guide takes one live record apart, defines every term and gives the order to read the site in. Start here →

MWITA-DM-2026-002 · Evidence A · P0

Probabilistic forecast quality must consider calibration and sharpness jointly; a forecaster can be calibrated while remaining uninformative by repeatedly issuing the base rate.

D03 · Intelligence, Research & Decision ProductsD19 · Measurement, Experimentation & Economics

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Small samples, dependence between forecasts, changing base rates and selectively resolved questions can make calibration plots unstable or misleading.

What would change the reading

Re-estimate when a cohort reaches a pre-specified minimum number of resolutions, when resolution policy changes, or when a structural break changes base rates.

Primary routes

  1. Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. & Raftery, A. E. (2007), “Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness.”https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2007.00587.xOpen source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.