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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-DM-2026-018 · Evidence A · P1

Strategic foresight explores multiple plausible futures rather than predicting one future, and its operational value comes from stress-testing current policy and identifying robust or contingent actions.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Workshop coherence is not predictive validity. Scenario processes can amplify fashionable narratives, sponsor bias and availability effects.

What would change the reading

Pre-register signposts and revisit conditions; score whether scenarios changed a decision, detected a relevant surprise, or merely produced narratives.

Primary routes

  1. OECD, Strategic Foresighthttps://www.oecd.org/en/about/programmes/strategic-foresight.htmlOpen source record →
  2. OECD (2025), Strategic Foresight Toolkit for Resilient Public Policyhttps://doi.org/10.1787/bcdd9304-enOpen source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.