MWITA-DM-2026-018 · Evidence A · P1
Strategic foresight explores multiple plausible futures rather than predicting one future, and its operational value comes from stress-testing current policy and identifying robust or contingent actions.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Workshop coherence is not predictive validity. Scenario processes can amplify fashionable narratives, sponsor bias and availability effects.
What would change the reading
Pre-register signposts and revisit conditions; score whether scenarios changed a decision, detected a relevant surprise, or merely produced narratives.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.