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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-D21-001 · Observed 2026-03-26

emerging

Augmented Productivity

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

Eurostat reports that 19.95% of EU enterprises with at least 10 workers used AI in 2025, up 6.47 percentage points from 2024; adoption was 17% for small, 30.36% for medium and 55.03% for large enterprises. Diffusion is rising, but the source does not establish task or total-factor productivity gains.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when broad SME AI use is accompanied by a statistically measured productivity gain in official firm-level or national productivity data, not adoption alone.

Counter-indicator

The 38-point small-versus-large adoption gap and absence of productivity outcomes are consistent with uneven augmentation rather than economy-wide productivity acceleration.

Update criterion

Update annually with Eurostat ICT-use and productivity releases; downgrade if adoption plateaus or measured output per hour/TFP remains flat after composition adjustment.

Primary routes

  1. https://doi.org/10.2785/9221093