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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-D21-003 · Observed 2025-04-22

contested

Fragmented Stagnation

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The IMF April 2025 reference forecast cut 2025 global growth to 2.8% and trade growth to 1.7% amid tariff escalation and uncertainty, but the report's own alternative paths depend on policy assumptions and do not establish persistent joint investment-and-trade stagnation.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed only if realized global trade volume and fixed investment both contract or materially undershoot baseline for at least two consecutive reporting periods while fragmentation measures remain elevated.

Counter-indicator

The IMF explicitly presents scenario ranges; its tariff-excluding path placed 2025 growth near 3.2%, showing sensitivity to policy reversal rather than a locked regime.

Update criterion

Reassess at each WEO/database release against realized trade, investment and energy-deployment data; downgrade to not_observed if trade and investment recover together.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025