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What a signpost is How to read this page

A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-D23-002 · Observed 2026-02-06

observed

Fast Generation, Slow Grid

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

IEA Electricity 2026 reports record grid-connection queues worldwide and rising congestion-related curtailment while grid investment lags generation investment. This directly matches queue/curtailment signposts, though delivered-system cost effects remain jurisdiction-specific.

Trigger threshold

Observed threshold is simultaneous authoritative evidence of record connection queues and rising congestion/curtailment, not capacity announcements alone.

Counter-indicator

Regulatory queue reform, rapid grid-enhancing technologies and the Baltic synchronization demonstrate that constraints can be relieved; the source does not say every power system is worsening.

Update criterion

Track queue size and age, withdrawal-adjusted projects, curtailment share, transformer lead times and transmission commissioning annually; downgrade if queues and congestion fall together.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/grids