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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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WLD-D24-005 · Observed 2024-06-20

not observed

Fusion Pilot Meets Integrated Net-power and Availability Targets

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

ITER's 2024 baseline update moved deuterium-deuterium operation to 2035 and describes a later gradual path toward deuterium-tritium operations. It reports planning and risk reduction, not integrated net power, tritium self-sufficiency, materials durability or commercial availability.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed only when one pilot simultaneously demonstrates net electric power to the grid, a closed/adequate tritium fuel cycle, specified materials lifetime and repeatable maintenance availability.

Counter-indicator

The delayed baseline and staged DD-before-DT program show that subsystem/scientific milestones remain short of the integrated wildcard condition.

Update criterion

Review ITER baseline approvals and operating results plus any pilot claiming all four metrics; reject claims that substitute plasma gain or a single pulse for plant net power and availability.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.iter.org/node/20687/updated-baseline-presented