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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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WLD-D24-004 · Observed 2024-12-09

emerging

Fault-tolerant Quantum Breakthrough

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

Google Quantum AI demonstrated below-threshold surface-code memories on Willow: distance-5 and distance-7 codes with real-time decoding, with logical error suppressed as code distance increased. This satisfies a falling-logical-error signpost but not scalable manufacturing or repeatable useful-problem advantage.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed only when below-threshold logical qubits scale to a reproducible system that completes a defined useful problem with independently auditable advantage and an engineering path to manufacturing.

Counter-indicator

The experiment is a quantum-memory/error-correction milestone; it is not a cryptographically relevant or general fault-tolerant computer and does not demonstrate commercial fabrication yield.

Update criterion

Track replicated logical error per cycle, logical-qubit count, circuit depth, useful benchmark verification and manufacturing yield; remain emerging while only the first component is met.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08449-y