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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-D23-001 · Observed 2025-02-25

contested

Electrified Resilience

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The International Energy Agency tracked 1,650 GW of advanced solar and wind projects awaiting grid connections in 2024 while documenting 1.5 million kilometres of new transmission built over the preceding decade. Expansion and a large connection backlog coexist, so coordinated electrified resilience is progressing but not yet keeping pace with generation.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when grid additions, storage and connection throughput reduce queues and curtailment across multiple regions while reliability or outage metrics improve.

Counter-indicator

The 1,650 GW queue is direct evidence that generation deployment outpaces transmission; kilometres built do not by themselves show resilience, affordability or climate adaptation.

Update criterion

Update with annual IEA grid investment, queue, curtailment and reliability data; downgrade if waiting capacity and congestion continue rising faster than connections.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.iea.org/reports/building-the-future-transmission-grid/executive-summary