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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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WLD-D24-001 · Observed 2024-05-13

observed

Cascading Solar Storm, Grid and Satellite Disruption

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

NASA's Community Coordinated Modeling Center records that the 10-13 May 2024 G5 storm coincided with power-grid irregularities, degraded GPS and HF radio, a temporary GOES-16 data outage, degraded Starlink service and other satellite effects. The named cross-infrastructure activation condition occurred, although US emergency and energy authorities reported no significant population impact.

Trigger threshold

Observed threshold is an authoritative severe-space-weather event with contemporaneous anomalies in at least two of grid, navigation, communications or satellite operations.

Counter-indicator

Mitigation prevented a population-scale grid or communications collapse, so the event does not validate the wildcard's worst-case duration or transformer-replacement assumptions.

Update criterion

Retain as an observed resilience test; update after official after-action reports, new severe events or demonstrated islanding and satellite-recovery improvements.

Primary routes

  1. https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/storms/may2024/narrative/