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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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WLD-D24-006 · Observed 2025-12-16

emerging

Rapid AI Productivity Surge

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

An OECD 2025 SME review reports that generative-AI-using SMEs more often reported performance benefits when applying it to core tasks and that 39% of using SMEs that recently faced a skills gap said it helped compensate. These are self-reported task benefits and diffusion evidence, not independently measured total-factor productivity or an economy-wide surge.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed only when official or independently audited firm-level panels show broad SME diffusion together with sustained labour-productivity or TFP gains and new-firm formation.

Counter-indicator

The evidence is self-reported, conditional on current users and does not establish causality, aggregate productivity or distribution of gains.

Update criterion

Review OECD firm-level productivity work and national business panels; downgrade if adoption rises while measured output per hour and entry rates remain flat.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/12/ai-adoption-by-small-and-medium-sized-enterprises_9c48eae6/426399c1-en.pdf