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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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WLD-D24-010 · Observed 2025-06-19

not observed

Trust Renaissance through Local Institutions

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

OECD Government at a Glance 2025 reports that people generally trust local government more than national government and that perceived voice in local matters has the strongest modeled association with local-government trust. The underlying 2023 cross-sectional survey is a baseline and driver analysis, not evidence of a sustained rise in local participation or trust.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when repeated representative surveys and administrative participation measures show sustained local gains across multiple jurisdictions without rising exclusion.

Counter-indicator

Cross-sectional associations do not show that participation caused trust or that either metric increased over time; country variation remains substantial.

Update criterion

Review the next OECD Trust Survey wave and matched local participation series; escalate only on repeated outcome gains, downgrade if voice and trust stagnate or improve only among already-engaged groups.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/government-at-a-glance-2025_0efd0bcd-en/full-report/drivers-of-trust-in-public-institutions_fe2b7742.html