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What a signpost is How to read this page

A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-D24-002 · Observed 2025-09-12

observed

Demo-rich, Deployment-poor

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The IEA's Global Hydrogen Review 2025 reduced potential 2030 low-emissions hydrogen output from announced projects from 49 to 37 million tonnes per year after delays and cancellations; projects with final investment decisions represented only 9% of the pipeline. This is a measured announcement-to-commitment gap in one frontier sector, not a verdict on every frontier technology.

Trigger threshold

Observed threshold is a sector-wide primary tracker showing repeated cancellations or delays and a single-digit committed share of an announced deployment pipeline.

Counter-indicator

Committed low-emissions production is still projected to grow fivefold by 2030 and final-investment-decision projects increased, so deployment is slow rather than absent.

Update criterion

Review annual IEA project-status and firm-offtake data; downgrade for hydrogen if committed capacity, operation and firm demand rise materially, and assess other technologies separately.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2025/executive-summary