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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-FIN-001 · Observed 2025-09-26

emerging

Regulated Programmable Finance

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The ECB's digital-euro innovation platform tested conditional payments and structured electronic receipts in a simulated environment with almost 70 market participants. It supplies regulated programmable-payment primitives, while the ECB explicitly says the ideas remain experimental and issuance is undecided.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when a licensed rail executes recurring real-value conditional payments with machine-readable mandates and receipts, auditable human approval where required, portable redress and published economic usage.

Counter-indicator

Simulation success does not demonstrate legal issuance, production scale, user demand, cross-provider portability, dispute resolution or reconciliation savings.

Update criterion

Review ECB legislation, pilot and transaction disclosures quarterly; upgrade only after real-value recurring use under an adopted rulebook, and downgrade if the project remains experimental or usage is immaterial.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250926_1~99b4b5b526.en.html