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What a signpost is How to read this page

A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-MKT-001 · Observed 2026-03-18

emerging

Agent-readable Revenue Infrastructure

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

Google's protocol guide documents AP2 typed IntentMandate and PaymentMandate objects with configurable limits, explicit approval and a PaymentReceipt closing the audit trail, alongside UCP offer/order handling. This is machine-readable commerce infrastructure, but the example is demonstrative and supplies no transaction adoption or outcome evidence.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when independent merchant and payment deployments use current structured offers, signed mandates and receipts in recurring agent-prepared transactions and publish conversion, error, dispute and handoff outcomes.

Counter-indicator

A first-party developer example and open protocol types do not establish interoperability across live providers, mass merchant support, current inventory accuracy, legal liability or economic usage.

Update criterion

Review UCP/AP2 repositories, payment-network adoption and merchant outcome studies quarterly; upgrade only with live cross-provider transactions and measured outcomes, and downgrade if implementations remain demos or incompatible forks.

Primary routes

  1. https://developers.googleblog.com/developers-guide-to-ai-agent-protocols/