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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-MKT-002 · Observed 2025-01-29

emerging

Synthetic Sameness and Human Premium

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The U.S. Copyright Office concluded that wholly AI-generated material is not copyrightable and that AI used to assist rather than replace human creativity does not remove protection. This creates a concrete rights distinction around human contribution, but it does not demonstrate a consumer price premium, stronger memory or declining marginal lift from synthetic variants.

Trigger threshold

Move to observed when controlled market evidence across at least two categories shows identifiable human-authored, live or provenance-verified offerings sustain higher willingness to pay, memory or trust after controlling for quality and brand.

Counter-indicator

Copyright eligibility is a legal boundary, not evidence of market preference; AI-assisted works can remain protected and high-volume synthetic content may still perform or be substantially human-authored.

Update criterion

Review copyright guidance, provenance adoption and category-level experiments annually; upgrade only on controlled demand or brand-outcome evidence and downgrade if synthetic scale sustains distinctiveness and trust without added rights burden.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.copyright.gov/ai/Copyright-and-Artificial-Intelligence-Part-2-Copyrightability-Report.pdf