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A watched question with a line drawn in advance

The threshold was written before the observation existed. That is what stops a state from being argued into place after the fact.

Four states, no probabilities

Observed, emerging, contested, not observed. These are qualitative readings against the threshold. No number is invented here, because an invented number would be the most quotable and least true thing on the page.

It stays alive between revisions

The update condition names what would move the state. A signpost that has stayed quiet is information too, and is published rather than hidden.

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SCN-GEO-004 · Observed 2024-12-31

observed

Assisted and Offline Digital Core

Qualitative signpost review · no probability assigned

Bounded observation

The Central Bank of Kenya reports 381,116 active mobile-money agents in December 2024, up 16.5% from 327,162 a year earlier, alongside average monthly mobile-money value of KSh724.8 billion. The physical cash-in/cash-out agent layer remained material and expanded rather than disappearing.

Trigger threshold

Observed threshold is regulator-reported growth or sustained material scale in active physical agents together with recurring transaction value, demonstrating that digital service delivery still includes an assisted cash-conversion layer.

Counter-indicator

Aggregate agent and transaction counts do not show rural coverage, unique active users, offline-resume superiority, voice/local-language completion, fraud, liquidity, redress or causal dependence on agents.

Update criterion

Review CBK monthly agent, cash-in/out, geographic, fraud and complaints data annually; downgrade per segment only if active-agent dependence and assisted-flow outcomes demonstrably recede while inclusive alternatives replace them.

Primary routes

  1. https://www.centralbank.go.ke/uploads/banking_sector_annual_reports/1328318827_2024%20Annual%20Report.pdf