MWITA-AISO-2026-003 · Evidence A · P1
AI Overviews appeared for 51.5% of 5,000 representative real-user queries, while mean source overlap among organic search, AI Overviews and Gemini stayed below 0.2 Jaccard across the 11,500-query benchmark.
What this does not establish
Retrieval or citation is not user impression, referral, CTR, conversion or revenue.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Organic ranking and AI source selection are not interchangeable; actual user exposure and business outcomes remain unmeasured.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform changes and deployed commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.