MWITA-AISO-2026-004 · Evidence A · P1
After one year, trackable organic ChatGPT referrals were below 0.2% of traffic; Organic Search had 13% higher conversion probability than oLLM, while Paid Social had 53% lower conversion probability than oLLM.
What this does not establish
Observed referrals are not brand impressions; channel differences are not causal and referrer suppression can misclassify traffic as direct.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
The large first-party dataset contradicts small vendor samples claiming uniformly superior AI conversion; assisted conversions remain unobserved.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform changes and deployed commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.