MWITA-AISO-2026-005 · Evidence A · P1
Conditional on searches that triggered an AI Overview, its display reduced outbound organic clicks from 0.62 to 0.37 per search and increased zero-click probability from 0.54 to 0.73.
What this does not establish
Conditional effect is not for all Google traffic; treatment also lifts organic results on screen, and click quality is not conversion or revenue.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
The study found no measurable improvement in active time, bounce, return-to-search or pages per external click.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform changes and deployed commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.