MWITA-AISO-2026-011 · Evidence B · P1
For position-one pages, AI Overview presence in December 2025 correlated with 58% lower desktop CTR than the counterfactual derived from non-AIO keywords.
What this does not establish
Position-one desktop CTR is not total traffic, AI Mode referral, conversion or revenue; unobserved SERP differences can confound the estimate.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
The magnitude exceeds early observational estimates but lacks randomized identification and clear country/language decomposition.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform changes and deployed commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.