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One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-CPCO-2026-007 · Evidence A · P1

In a randomized heavy-rain warning survey, the strongest peer-externality message increased stated shelter-evacuation intention by about 15 percentage points versus the control; at eight months, a different gain/prevention message increased reported emergency-item preparation by 4.7-5.8 points, but no message changed observed pre-evacuation.

D01 · Marketing, Brand & Revenue SystemsD16 · Creative Technology & Synthetic MediaD19 · Measurement, Experimentation & EconomicsD22 · Policy, Geopolitics & Societal Change

What this does not establish

Hypothetical warning responses and low-event follow-up cannot establish lives saved, actual evacuation under a severe disaster, or effects outside Japanese alert institutions.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

The peer-externality message maximized immediate intention but also produced more reported peer pressure and repulsion; intention superiority did not persist as an observed evacuation advantage.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and deployed commercial, civic or human outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. CPCO-S007https://doi.org/10.1007/s42973-021-00095-7Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.