MWITA-LPPO-2026-009 · Evidence A · P1
Actual coupon redemption improved product and manufacturer lifetime value among compliers, while average assignment effects and retailer value were much smaller or null.
What this does not establish
Local average treatment effect for compliers to a new beer coupon, not the average effect on all recipients or other categories.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Product/manufacturer value gains did not establish retailer-level value, and low redemption made ITT nearly zero.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform or model changes, and deployed human or commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.