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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-MIO-2026-010 · Evidence A · P1

A randomized European e-retailer retargeting test found about a 4.5% relative increase in purchase probability but no evidence that users receiving higher platform bids were more incrementally responsive; under the CPA contract, 46.4% of platform fees were tied to purchases estimated to have happened anyway.

What this does not establish

One advertiser, platform, CPA contract and retargeting population; the key interaction was imprecise and does not prove all platform bidding systematically destroys value.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Platform bids predicted baseline purchase probability but not incremental responsiveness, demonstrating why attributed acquisitions and CPA optimization can oppose advertiser incremental profit.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and deployed commercial, civic or human outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. MIO-S010https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4438Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.