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One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-MIO-2026-012 · Evidence B · P1

In three advertiser case studies benchmarked to randomized geo experiments, naive observational paid-search ROAS was roughly 15x, 8.4x and 2.9x the indexed experimental estimates; query-volume selection-bias correction reduced estimates to 3.0x, 1.9x and 0.8x, respectively.

D01 · Marketing, Brand & Revenue SystemsD03 · Intelligence, Research & Decision ProductsD07 · Commerce, Productization & MarketplacesD19 · Measurement, Experimentation & Economics

What this does not establish

Proprietary Google cases, confidential absolute ROAS and assumptions about search-query back-door adjustment limit audit and transport; the corrected case-1 point estimate remained above the experiment benchmark.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

High predictive fit and spend-sales correlation did not imply causal ROAS accuracy; demand adjustment helped but was often insufficient, while the causal correction was not exact in every case.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and deployed commercial, civic or human outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. MIO-S012https://research.google/pubs/bias-correction-for-paid-search-in-media-mix-modeling/Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.