MWITA-SPEO-2026-006 · Evidence B · P1
Major League Baseball bobblehead giveaways were associated with higher paid attendance, with diminishing response as giveaway quantity approached roughly 40% of stadium capacity and no detected substitution across games or teams.
What this does not establish
Paid tickets are not gate-scanned physical footfall, merchandise spend, profit, sponsor recall, or long-term loyalty; promotion scheduling was not randomized.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Strong same-game association coexists with bounded nulls for displacement and satiation; causal interpretation remains exposed to promotion scheduling and matchup demand.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and realized behavioral or commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.