MWITA-ELO-2026-006 · Evidence A · P1
In the stratified randomized beauty-retail experiment, email had no significant sales effect in any of six customer-value segments, despite observational models finding email responsiveness for some current-customer segments; direct mail worked for prospects and the email-plus-mail interaction was small but significant only for medium-value customers.
What this does not establish
The opt-in/contactable sample excludes channel-refusers; the finding is one retailer, country, campaign and segmentation system and does not prove email is ineffective generally or that physical mail is always better for acquisition.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
The randomized email null diverged from significant email effects in the prior observational model, demonstrating that modeled responsiveness is not a substitute for causal campaign evidence.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral or commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.