MWITA-MFG-2026-007 · Evidence A · P0
IEA estimated full implementation of 2025 rare-earth export controls could put US$6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk.
What this does not establish
At-risk value is not forecast lost output.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Restrictions were partly suspended and substitution/inventories alter exposure.
What would change the reading
Track license flows, inventories, utilization and actual production interruptions.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.