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SRC-daa68a890efde72d · Source record

Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 — Executive Summary

International Energy Agency · 10 connected claims

D04 · Health, Evidence, Supplements & PeptidesD08 · Finance, Funding, Investment & TradingD16 · Creative Technology & Synthetic MediaD21 · Economy, Work & Business-model FuturesD24 · Frontier Science & Wildcards

Canonical route

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2026/executive-summary

Claims connected to this source

  1. MWITA-MFG-2026-006IEA estimated that excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose from 70% in 2023 to 72% in 2025.Evidence A
  2. MWITA-MFG-2026-007IEA estimated full implementation of 2025 rare-earth export controls could put US$6.5 trillion per year of downstream production outside China at risk.Evidence A
  3. MWITA-MFG-2026-008IEA estimated critical-mineral mining investment fell 9% in 2025, with battery-metals spending down more than 20% and lithium-company investment down about 40%.Evidence A
  4. MWITA-MFG-2026-009IEA estimated advanced-economy public-finance commitments for critical minerals reached about US$65 billion in 2025, more than four times 2023, while warning commitments and disbursements differ.Evidence A
  5. MWITA-MFG-2026-010IEA estimated Latin America and the Caribbean produces around one-quarter of global lithium but refines only about one-fifth of its mined output of key energy minerals other than lithium.Evidence A
  6. MWITA-CRM-2026-016IEA estimates critical-mineral investment fell 9% in 2025; battery-material company spending fell more than 20% and lithium specialists cut investment around 40%.Evidence B
  7. MWITA-CRM-2026-017IEA's project-pipeline analysis projects a copper supply deficit of about 25% in 2035 under its stated-policy outlook.Evidence C
  8. MWITA-CRM-2026-018IEA reports the leading supplier's rare-earth refining share fell from above 90% in 2023 to 85% in 2025 as US projects and Malaysian output increased.Evidence B
  9. MWITA-CRM-2026-019IEA reports lithium prices more than doubled from early 2025 to early 2026 and cobalt prices rose about 130%, largely after DRC export restrictions.Evidence B
  10. MWITA-CRM-2026-020IEA reports European gallium prices around five times Chinese domestic prices and germanium prices almost three times higher in 2026 amid export controls.Evidence B

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