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One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-MIO-2026-002 · Evidence A · P1

In 663 Facebook RCT benchmarks, neither double/debiased machine learning nor stratified propensity-score matching reliably recovered causal ad lift despite more than 5,000 user- and experiment-level features.

D01 · Marketing, Brand & Revenue SystemsD03 · Intelligence, Research & Decision ProductsD07 · Commerce, Productization & MarketplacesD19 · Measurement, Experimentation & Economics

What this does not establish

Does not prove nonexperimental measurement can never work; authors identify missing auction-specific features as a possible route, and platform/campaign selection bounds transport.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Flexible deep-learning nuisance models did not cure the discrepancy, countering the assumption that modern ML plus rich user data substitutes for randomized incrementality tests.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and deployed commercial, civic or human outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. MIO-S002https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2022.1413Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.