MWITA-MIO-2026-004 · Evidence A · P1
eBay randomized paid-search suppression and found no measurable short-run benefit from brand-keyword ads; for nonbrand terms, the total paid-search regime added an estimated 0.66% to sales with a 95% confidence interval spanning -0.42% to 1.74%, and average returns were negative because frequent users absorbed most spend without responding.
What this does not establish
Does not establish that paid search is ineffective for less familiar brands, competitive brand auctions, new customers, or different query portfolios.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Experimental returns were a fraction of conventional nonexperimental estimates, while heterogeneity shows that a single campaign-average effect hides responsive acquisition segments.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, context changes and deployed commercial, civic or human outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.