MWITA-RCO-2026-001 · Evidence A · P1
Sender-side reward uncertainty increased total referrals, whereas recipient-side uncertainty reduced referrals and post-referral engagement.
What this does not establish
A points-based Chinese telecom app with push notifications and gamification is not a general referral-program or CLV benchmark.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
The same uncertainty mechanism has opposite effects by role: it reduces sender guilt but lowers recipient fairness perceptions and engagement.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised versions, denominators, confidence intervals, platform or model changes, and deployed human or commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.