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One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-XMO-2026-001 · Evidence B · P1

For one 77-day US campaign targeting men 18-49, reallocating 17.25% of a $40m TV budget to YouTube was modeled to raise 3+ combined reach from 63.72% to 67.51% (+3.79 pp) at fixed cost; a separate solution held 63.72% reach while cutting total cost 18.08%.

What this does not establish

A modeled planning counterfactual, not randomized delivery; it assumes comparable value per reached person and does not estimate recall, attitude, conversion, sales or profit.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

Online improved modeled light-viewer reach and reduced heavy-viewer frequency, but demographic targeting violated a model assumption in two validations.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral, commercial or welfare outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. XMO-S001https://research.google/pubs/the-optimal-mix-of-tv-and-online-ads-to-maximize-reach/Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.