MWITA-XMO-2026-002 · Evidence B · P1
Across 26,222 campaign-by-demographic optimization cases derived from 2,914 quarterly US TV campaigns and nine demographic groups, 29.25% were modeled to benefit from shifting TV budget to YouTube; among selected cases, the average optimal shift was about 50% and mean modeled reach gain was 7 percentage points.
What this does not establish
The analysis optimizes reach under cost/model assumptions; it does not show that YouTube caused brand lift, conversion, sales or profit, and country transfer is unresolved in the public record.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
A majority (70.75%) were not classified as benefiting from reallocation, so the average gain among selected campaigns is not universal.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral, commercial or welfare outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.