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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-XMO-2026-002 · Evidence B · P1

Across 26,222 campaign-by-demographic optimization cases derived from 2,914 quarterly US TV campaigns and nine demographic groups, 29.25% were modeled to benefit from shifting TV budget to YouTube; among selected cases, the average optimal shift was about 50% and mean modeled reach gain was 7 percentage points.

What this does not establish

The analysis optimizes reach under cost/model assumptions; it does not show that YouTube caused brand lift, conversion, sales or profit, and country transfer is unresolved in the public record.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

A majority (70.75%) were not classified as benefiting from reallocation, so the average gain among selected campaigns is not universal.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral, commercial or welfare outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. XMO-S002https://research.google/pubs/advertising-on-youtube-and-tv-a-meta-analysis-of-optimal-media-mix-planning/Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.