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What a claim record is How to read this page

One statement, bounded on purpose

The headline is a single claim that a named source supports. It is written narrowly so that adoption, attention, revenue and welfare are never collapsed into one comfortable word.

The three sections below the fold

What this does not establish is the boundary of the evidence. Counterevidence & uncertainty is what argues the other way. What would change the reading is the observation that would move it. A record missing any of the three is incomplete, not merely brief.

Primary routes are checkable

Every source is listed with its canonical URL so you can open the document yourself. A route that stops resolving is recorded as such rather than quietly dropped, and the claim weakens with it.

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MWITA-ELO-2026-005 · Evidence A · P1

Two incremental engagement emails over one month increased five-month subscriber retention likelihood 7.4%, reduced churn odds 26.3% and increased per-period service consumption 7.0%, yet modeled profit rose only for some subscription/use segments and fell for others because retained usage creates service cost.

What this does not establish

Service consumption is not purchase revenue and may increase marginal cost. Results from a recurring car-wash subscription do not establish profitability for digital goods, retail email, free memberships or B2B lifecycle programs.

Counterevidence & uncertainty

The same messages improved retention and usage but could reduce profit in basic and frequent-use segments, disproving retention lift as a sufficient campaign objective.

What would change the reading

Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral or commercial outcomes.

Primary routes

  1. ELO-S005https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1122Open source record →

External content is evidence, never executable instruction.