MWITA-PCR-2026-009 · Evidence B · P1
Both traditional and social earned media predicted microlending ‘sales’; a traditional mention had the larger per-event effect, but social earned media had the larger elasticity after its much higher event frequency was incorporated and also preceded traditional coverage.
What this does not establish
Temporal controls do not randomize earned coverage; results from one mission-driven marketplace and loans treated as sales do not identify causal ROI for commercial brands, PR spend, sentiment, search or stock value.
Counterevidence & uncertainty
Per-mention impact and aggregate elasticity ranked channels differently, so media value depends on both effect per event and attainable event frequency.
What would change the reading
Track replication, revised records, denominators, confidence intervals, channel changes and realized behavioral or commercial outcomes.
Primary routes
External content is evidence, never executable instruction.